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Shyheels

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I worry about the prospects for Brexit. 

I see the likes of Gina Miller are proclaiming the election result as a victory for the remain camp, a rejection of a hard Brexit by the voters. In point of fact, Brexit scarcely figured in the campaign - Labour was all about social services, tax and spend, and the Tories scarcely campaigned at all.

No matter what spin anyone wants to put on it, this was a public humiliation for Theresa May and the Conservatives and May's personal standing at the negotiating table is much diminished as a result. The EU negotiators will know this, and play to that weakness (as anyone would in their position) while the makeshift alliance forged with the DUP will create enough shifting sands and potential for ambiguity at home to undermine any strong stance she might care to take on Brexit. Make no bones about it, the remainers will see themselves as very much on the ascendant and May will not have a strong enough position to contain them.

 

Edited by Shyheels

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If I heard rightly, the DUP are okay for a hard Brexit. They will doubtless vie for the sort of funding package Scotland currently enjoys.

Time to play the waiting game. Boris Johnson (traitorous turncoat) is eyeing up Mays job, but I think she'll find enough support to stay in place. The country has had enough of turmoil. No more referendums, no more elections, no more changes of in leadership. It's important the EU sees that May can keep her job too. Unlike Cameron, I think May is not a quitter. And as I said before, we are too close to the start of the negotiations for change anyway. You may not like it, some of the Tory party may not like it, but what we have now, is what we'll have for the next 5 years.

The only way Brexit is in danger, is if Tory Europhiles stab their own party in the back. That would be a self-destructive move, as an early election, really would give us a Labour government. Corbyn's ego is about to compete with the moon so I'm hoping he will get enough rope to hang himself with his 'spend spend spend' initiative. The Tories must now look at changing the funding regime at universities, to pull the rug from under the Labour party, and bring the elderly back into the fold with their care and pension packages. 

I'm going to have a couple of prescription tranquillisers, and a lie down. My nerves are in shreds. ;) :D

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Tory Europhiles are quite capable of stabbing their own party in the back. Europhiles in general have but one true loyalty and that is to the "European project". 

As to May, she might linger for a while but she's made an awful lot of enemies with this ill considered election and wooden campaign. She owns this mess, along with Davis and a couple of inside advisors. No way known she'll be at Number 10 for another five years, or even one. There's too much rank-and-file party room hate floating around, and what's more, she's burned her credibility and standing beyond her ability to retrieve them. She's damaged goods and widely perceived as such, in the U.K. and in the EU. She'll go. I am sure there are half a dozen people tonight plotting their courses of action and quietly starting the business of shoring up support. 

Edited by Shyheels

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I don't 'do' politics [see piece above] - and I deplore the poor grammar of that expression too.   But, as someone shaken by what has happened (quite aside from my political leanings, such as they are), I have to commend Freddy for some insightful comments which I consider have put things into sharp focus.   In particular, I think he is dead right that Corbyn was very ready to promise the earth in the clear knowledge that he would not be called upon to deliver it - regardless of some very dubious costings.   And, in doing so, he succeeded in convincing a large section of the population - and particularly students - that his was the one true path.   And Freddy rightly identifies that at least one worthwhile result of the election has been the emasculation of the SNP and its gorgeous stiletto-wearing leaderene, leaving the United Kingdom to concentrate on more important cross-border matters.

I am no tactician or diplomat and I do not pretend to understand the dirty game that underlies most political activity.   But I cannot see how we could have another election within the foreseeable future without the liklihood of shifting the present position even further to the left.   Many, of course, would welcome that and press for it - but if the Conservatives are to avoid further humiliation and potential defeat they must surely regroup and, much as Freddy suggests, introduce (and not just promise) measures which will fairly address the concerns of students, pensioners and the sick without bankrupting the country - or completely screwing middle-England, along with those 'fat cats' who have not by then emigrated.     We shall see ...

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I'm trying hard to stop myself being upset by the GE results and the ruptions within the winning political party. It will be the second time in a year they have suffered a shocking surprise, and you'd think they'd have learned to handle it better by now.....

The absolutely last thing the Tory party needs, is the upheaval of a change in leadership. The VERY last thing this country needs, is a change in our country's leadership. As with the Tory party, the country has had enough of change. Teresa May got 2M more votes than Cameron, and the Tories were happy with the result he got. Time to move on. Time to move forward. B)

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I read again, Trump is in the do-do. (Is he ever out of it?)

I heard again today, "will he get assassinated"?

Things must be bad, if people in the general populace dislike someone so much, they are looking for their removal by the use of violence. :huh:

Surely, he must resign or be impeached. His tenancy in the White House is a mockery, to democracy, humanity, and America.

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I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was impeached. Indeed I'll be surprised if he's not. He seems to have no concept of ethics, the law, or the dignity of his office.

I would be stunned - and sickened - if anything physical happened to him, though. Won't happen. 

Edited by Shyheels

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5 hours ago, FastFreddy2 said:

I read again, Trump is in the do-do. (Is he ever out of it?)

I heard again today, "will he get assassinated"?

Things must be bad, if people in the general populace dislike someone so much, they are looking for their removal by the use of violence. :huh:

Surely, he must resign or be impeached. His tenancy in the White House is a mockery, to democracy, humanity, and America.

 

4 hours ago, Shyheels said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was impeached. Indeed I'll be surprised if he's not. He seems to have no concept of ethics, the law, or the dignity of his office.

I would be stunned - and sickened - if anything physical happened to him, though. Won't happen. 

Leaving aside what Trump has actually said, done or threatened, I find both incredible and frightening the power apparently vested in one person as President.   He seems to be able to do whatever he wants with little or no direct and immediate means of keeping him in check - more a dictator than the head of a democracy.   Could he actually press the nuclear button on his own initiative?   If so, heaven help us all!

As an aside, there are three things that irritate me whenever I see him and which seem to sum up his falseness:   (i) putting his hand over his heart when making a solemn declaration (which appears to be the American way); (ii) saluting military officers when he is not himself either in the military (except, nominally, as commander-in-chief) or in uniform; (ii) that peculiar up-and-down arm gesture with his encircled right finger and thumb when he is emphasising a point - probably a 'BS is active' indicator.

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He is objectionable on many grounds. I've lost count of them.

The president of the US is indeed a very powerful individual, but the US constitution has seen to it that the president does not have unfettered power, although Trump seems to believe that it does. In this he is wrong and is finding these things out the hard way and getting grumpier by the day about it. If you'll note, Trump has not passed a single (major) piece of legislation since he became president (most of what he has passed has been things like bills to rename various Federal buildings etc) Nor can he declare war without the approval of congress. 

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8 hours ago, Shyheels said:

I would be stunned - and sickened - if anything physical happened to him, though. Won't happen. 

With a population of close to 300 million, there might well be an individual who might consider the sacrifice of one life over 100's of thousands, or even millions, a worthy sacrifice to save so many others. Statistically, it would make sense. Many others have volunteered to make the same sacrifice for the same reason. Brave men though, which I doubt Trump is.

As Stalin would suggest, with so many people killed in the US (and many more in other South American countries) what difference would one life make to a statistic that usually sits in the tens of thousands? Especially if the loss of it saved the world from global war?

 

Trump is isolating himself from the people who could and would support his initiatives if he was more a politician, and less of an egotistical megalomaniac. He can't last the full term, as he has cuckolded himself. If he has any sense (unlikely) he will resign under the auspices that politicians "failed to see the need for change, and wouldn't support him". When in actual fact, he alienated anyone who would and could help.

 

 

 

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He'll never resign. 

I expect he will be impeached. The FBI investigation is no joking matter and I think he'll find himself in some serious legal/political hot water if he is not careful - although I suspect he's street smart enough to keep himself out of jail. His aides and son-in-law might not be so lucky, though.

I do think he will be impeached. And I think that could create problems. 

As for Trump starting wars, launching nukes...he really can't. He has, in a way, made himself irrelevant. The government and military and the constitution itself would not allow it.

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11 hours ago, Shyheels said:

As for Trump starting wars, launching nukes...he really can't. He has, in a way, made himself irrelevant. The government and military and the constitution itself would not allow it.

He doesn't  have to start one, he only has to provoke NK enough so they make the first move or make sounds like they are about to. 

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NK isn't really going to do any such thing. Their fearless leader enjoys being on the world stage and imagining himself to be a superpower.

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35 minutes ago, Shyheels said:

NK isn't really going to do any such thing. Their fearless leader enjoys being on the world stage and imagining himself to be a superpower.

Really?

I think you need to read more news/propaganda. The rest of the world doesn't share your confidence.... >> clicky <<  Neither do I.

Fat man if building and testing delivery vehicles. 'Rumour' has it, his minions have finally developed an atomic warhead small enough for the delivery vehicles to get to American soil. He has said he will destroy America, once he has the means, it will take a very diplomatic leader with large balls to stop American launching a preemptive strike.

 

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We'll see.

Kim Jong Un is a self aggrandising fruitcake but he does have survival sense. He knows he would never survive a full on conflict with the US 

Nobody but the US is giving him any air time at all

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9 hours ago, Shyheels said:

We'll see.

 

Even Trumps co-author think he's going to fall on his sword. Reported >> here <<

Although he has been saying that for some time ... :rolleyes:

Edited by FastFreddy2

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He's way too much of narcissist...

The whole world will be wrong, he'll be right...

Edited by Shyheels

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8 minutes ago, Shyheels said:

He's way too much of narcissist...

The whole world will be wrong, he'll be right...

No wonder they got on back in the 80's .... 

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Another step closer to Brexit, achieved last night despite efforts from the dissenters. :)

It would seem the Labour Party is now as close to being a Marxist organisation as it has ever been. The media is currently reporting it wants to use an illegal cross-industry "General Strike" to attempt a downfall of the current government. Obviously, Marxists only want to use the ballot box, when they win when using it. Losing, at the ballot box, means circumventing democracy to cause general unrest and division. I have fairly strong socialist inclinations, but my attitude toward democracy trumps any interest I have in socialism. 

I am unsure how this situation will all pan out, but there is a growing consensus even amongst the Remainers (widely reported after recent polls) that we should leave the EU. It's almost advertised by the main dissenting party as "the third way",  since the dissenters have finally recognised that immigration may be one of the main drivers of the Leave campaign. (Who knew?) The suggestion for the 'third way' is that immigration might be restricted, and the UK stay part of the EU Single Market. Thing is, Merkel and her Commissar's sorry Commissioners, have said "free movement of people" is not negotiable. It's a fundamental part of the membership criteria for access to the Single Market. So put bluntly, there is no third way. :rolleyes:

Odd thing I found out a couple of days ago, the UK had the option of restricting immigration for 7 years after the old Soviet Bloc countries joined the EU. Most of the other member states took up that option, including Germany. The UK did not, which (seemingly) surprised many. At the time, the government of the day said the numbers that came here would not be significant .... Liars. "They" (Blair) is the author of Brexit, since it was his government that did not take up the restrictions, and allowed unfettered immigration, while at the same time reduced the funding to the NHS, schools, and other infrastructure that newcomers would need when they arrived. With no new housing plan for example, where were 2M newcomers to live? Rents have doubled, property prices have done the same. Why? Demand, with little or no new supply. Same with schools.

While much of Brexit will not undo the current shortfall in infrastructure, at least the tide of newcomers might be slowed down. Many of us hope..... :huh: 

Edited by FastFreddy2

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I had come to this thread, on the back of a "Trump" search. Anyone reading the news today (Thursday for Brits) will now know that Trump incited a protest that (as predicted) became a riot with one protester being shot and who subsequently died. Even Republicans will have a hard time refuting his action was an act of sedition that will likely (and finally) find him at the sharp end of an impeachment. If I understand it right, the Democrats have both Houses (apparently thanks to Trump) and his Republican pals can't protect him this time around, even in the unlikely event they might want to.

There is a lot more to this story, and every reader here will be submerged in it for the next week, if not two weeks. I will not add any further detail for now.

 

The real reason for livening up this thread, isn't "Donny" but Brexit. At the time of writing last time in September 2017 it looked like the Referendum was going to get what the voter had asked for. hahahaha How wrong was that premature conclusion.....

Three and a half years later, we have left the EU. I can't count the times it looked to me like it wasn't going to happen. Can't say how many angry days I had, wondering how elected politicians could so blatantly ignore the electorate. When historians write up UK politics of 2019, I wonder how they would describe it in a single word or single phrase? For me, "bloodbath" would be a starting point. Corbyn ridiculed three times. EU elections, Council Elections, and General Election pilloried for his "sitting on the fence" stance over Brexit, despite Labour party members at voter level wanting Brexit. My personal joy at Jo Swinson, who having promised to reverse the Referendum decision, couldn't even keep her constituency seat, despite being lauded as a potential Remainer coalition PM. Many Remainer MP's got it so wrong, though the writing was on the wall. Several Remain supporters understanding the EU and Council election results better than Swinson having seen Remainer supporters get significantly less votes than even the most pessimistic amongst them had thought possible. December 2019 brought an election victory for Brexit that was not only obvious, it was such a deep part of the winning manifesto it had to happen and happen it did. Within weeks the UK had 'technically' left the EU and moved into a transition period. A few days ago, the transition period concluded, and the UK has completely disengaged itself from EU influence (in any meaningful way) and regained its sovereignty.

Well done democracy.B)

 

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The broadcast comments (from Biden and others) concerning the alarming and disgraceful scenes in Washington included references to several actions with which most of us in the civilised world are unfamiliar - and hope to remain so.   They are described using somewhat arcane terminology that has a specific legal meaning which is not always quite the same in the US as it is in the UK.   In the loosest sense, the scenes in and around the Capitol could be described as a 'riot' but they were, more specifically, an insurrection (i.e. a violent uprising against an authority or government) prompted by Trump's inflammatory outpourings amounting to sedition (i.e. conduct or speech inciting people to rebel against the authority of the state) because of his refusal to accept the result of the Presidential election. 

As I understand it, the Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection, and rebellion.  [Emphasis added]

I am no constitutional lawyer (nor, thank goodness, an American citizen) but it seems to me that the US is now in the somewhat strange (if totally predictable) position of being subject to insurrection at the hands of the President, who is the very person empowered to suppress it!   He will doubtless fail to fulfill his duty in this regard and I would have thought that he is now even more open to impeachment than before - for what that is worth given the very short remaining term of his office.   Maybe this is all ascademic - particularly if the Washington situation is now under control - but yet again we see the weakness of a world power because of the utter failings of its elected but unhinged leader, supported by a bunch of violent rednecks. 

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The way to get him out, is the use of Amendment 25. Once he is out of office, he can not pardon himself. (The position of President goes to Pence, who having been threatened with violence by Trump at the hand of his rioter mob, would I think be disinclined to pardon Trump for anything.)

Sadly, I think America/Americans will not use this or any other method to remove him prematurely, because of the shame it might invite. American 'pride' will save him until Biden takes over.  Historically, any person achieving the title of President, gets to keep it for the rest of their lives. It would be fitting, if a way was found for that honour to be stripped from him. 

I fully agree sedition/insurrection were both witnessed during the previous days, and maybe even months as Trump continuously railed against election results. I have read him and his supporters tried 62 times to have counts disqualified in courts, and lack of evidence found not one case found in his favour. It didn't stop him spreading lies and propaganda that folk with soft minds thought to be true. Even highly placed court officials that had been given their job by Trump had said there was no evidence of fraud. Just a few days ago, a telephone conversation was published  in which Trump was heard to coerce the government official. The point Trump wanted to make, was the official was to "find" (during a non-existent recount) over 11,000 uncounted votes in Trumps favour. Effectively doing the very thing Trump had accused the government officials of doing to him. 

Hard to imagine a man in a position of authority, abusing that authority by trying to alter a democratic election for the position of President of the United States. Hard to imagine a man in a position of authority in the American government, inciting an invasion of place and procedure, to thwart the very democratic process that he swore to uphold. Harder still to understand that "man" is currently the President of the United States of America.   

 

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The UK TV News tonight is suggesting that there is quite a strong possibility of Trump being impeached or otherwise removed from office - there seems to be more than one way of doing this, depending upon who initiates it.   As I read it, Amendment 25 deals with succession (i.e. that Pence as VP will assume the full mantle of President if Trump goes) rather than providing a mechanism for removal.   But let us wait and see.

I rather doubt that 'American pride' will prevent any attempt to remove Trump.   He seems to have so embarrassed the country that 'American pride' now almost obliges such firm action to be taken.   'You may be the President but you're not going to foul up the US democracy and standing any longer'.   Again, we shall see.

I wonder whether Trump will still be attempting to issue pardons to all and sundry (including possibly himself) as a final act of defiance in whatever short time he remains in office?   This likely irrational conduct is another good reason for swift removal.

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1 hour ago, Puffer said:

The UK TV News tonight is suggesting that there is quite a strong possibility of Trump being impeached or otherwise removed from office - there seems to be more than one way of doing this, depending upon who initiates it.   As I read it, Amendment 25 deals with succession accession (i.e. that Pence as VP will assume the full mantle of President if Trump goes) rather than providing a mechanism for removal.   But let us wait and see.

I rather doubt that 'American pride' will prevent any attempt to remove Trump.   He seems to have so embarrassed the country that 'American pride' now almost obliges such firm action to be taken.   'You may be the President but you're not going to foul up the US democracy and standing any longer'.   Again, we shall see.

I wonder whether Trump will still be attempting to issue pardons to all and sundry (including possibly himself) as a final act of defiance in whatever short time he remains in office?   This likely irrational conduct is another good reason for swift removal.

 

Amendment 25 allows for the incumbent to be assessed as incapable of holding office effectively. While the incumbent can use A.25 to 'relieve' themselves temporarily, there is a clause that allows the position to be taken. The VP and at least 8 of the 15 Cabinet members must conclude this and issue 'notice' to both the incumbent and the House(s) the incumbent has been replaced and for what reason.

The danger of course, is that should the incumbent get wind of this before the declarations are made, he has the authority to fire both the VP and all the Cabinet who report to him. Impeachment failed before, but it might not after yesterday. Despite everything that has happened in the past 4 years, Trump still has supporters in both Houses. After Jan 20th of course, completely different ball game. Democrats have both Houses, mostly thanks to Trumps appalling performance which has spiralled downward with increasing speed for at least the past year. 

We will have to agree to disagree on the 'pride' issue. Trump will stay where he is right up until Biden is inaugurated and that's because too many people believe the office of President is untouchable. Even Nixon who should have had jail time for a similar attempt with undemocratic behaviour, was effectively let off the hook with a pardon. Ford's speech regarding his pardon explains my opinion exactly. To paraphrase, "It is what's best for the country and Nixon's family." America will have the same view of Trump.  Don't forget Trump got nearly 74M votes in 2020 and in many election years that would be enough to have re-elected him. Biden wants to unite the country, and putting Trump in jail (where he belongs) will not help to do that. If Trump isn't removed before the 20th, Biden will be critical, but he won't look for revenge or retribution, it just wouldn't help him stop the hate that Trump has stirred up.

The issue of Trump pardoning himself* and his family has been the subject of discussion elsewhere. For him to do this, would confirm the need to have done it. Given what happened yesterday at the hands of Trump, and the support the rioters have had from his family, none of them have a great future anywhere for any reason. They are now poison, socially and commercially. 

Ivanka had apparently done well, and there once was a possibility of a Trump dynasty, but no longer. Her father scuppered any chance of that yesterday, and she hammered the nails into her own political coffin by supporting her father and the rioters.

P.S.

*A headline circa midnight.....

image.png.67dd1360e6b7ca4150851cbc8dc7dc65.png

 

It seems this "Pardon" function is only valid if (a) the subsequent administration honours it (I think it would) and (b) only pardons Federal crime not State criminal acts. It would seem that New York is going after him sometime after Jan 21st for (I think) "tax irregularities". 

Edited by FastFreddy2

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