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Shyheels

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Trump will see it all as a left wing plot against him, driven by his old enemies The Media

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7 hours ago, Shyheels said:

Trump will see it all as a left wing plot against him, driven by his old enemies The Media

Well, he might have a point, but he gives them so much ammunition. :rolleyes:

Things could and should have, been so much different. He was a great opportunity for Americans (as was Obama). Trump is someone from outside the "establishment" who might have taken a fresh view on making things 'right' for more people. I'm not sure that's what he is actually doing. Seems to me, he is running one of the world's most expensive PR campaign's.

Time will tell, but the odds on him getting a second term (some say - him even completing his first term) are getting worse by the week. 

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Yes, he's got one-termer written all over him, if he's not actually impeached during his first.

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3 hours ago, Shyheels said:

Yes, he's got one-termer written all over him, if he's not actually impeached during his first.

And the real shame of that is, it will disenfranchise/alienate voters who thought giving an outsider the chance to 'be in charge' was a good idea. I very much doubt another (outsider) will get the same chance in our life-times. 

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Actually I think in some ways has opened doors for outsiders - the thinking being that if that clown can get elected, surely anybody can. To be sure, a huge tranche of Trump supporters are going to end up feeling as though they've been sold a bill of goods, and become embittered. Others will come along though - outsiders and free-thinkers, emboldened by Trump's success. The major political parties and their elites have had a wake-up call with this, and will probably start to do something for - or at least start paying lip service to - the rank and file mugs whose votes can help keep them at the trough

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10 hours ago, Shyheels said:

Actually I think in some ways has opened doors for outsiders - the thinking being that if that clown can get elected, surely anybody can.

Bit harsh. ;) :P :D ..... Even if true. ;) B)

 

10 hours ago, Shyheels said:

The major political parties and their elites have had a wake-up call with this, and will probably start to do something for - or at least start paying lip service to - the rank and file mugs whose votes can help keep them at the trough

I think this is very true, though looking at British politics (and the French election result) you might be mistaken for thinking otherwise. Corbyn, "good man, sincere man" though he undoubtedly is, does not really understand the wants of his core voters. The British working man doesn't want to compete with 500M others in the EU for their jobs, school places, homes or hospital bed. He sees it otherwise. Duh! As do the other 3 parties with any seats worth counting. (LibDum's, SNP, Greens.)

The French election produced a President from the left field, meaning neither of the two major parties, but his policies could have come from either of the two other parties. Again, different, but the same.

While it would necessitate a coalition government, I'm a great believer in P.R. not least because there'd be more inclination for people to vote. There'd be no such thing as a wasted vote. Maybe one day ....

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At the eve of a General Election that might shape the UK for the next 30 years, and the first 10 minutes of the BBC 10pm news went like a party political broadcast for the Labour Party. To be fair the Beeb gave all the major parties a shout, although of all of the leaders who had challenges put to them, Mr Corbyn was exempted. 

"A leopard can't change it's spots."

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It will be interesting to see the result, given Theresa May's incredibly uninspiring and lacklustre campaign. By all rights this should have been a Tory landslide of epic proportions 

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You are quite right, that it did seem lacklustre. Corbyn has been a bit more on the ball, and Sturgeon has been her usual snarling self. 

I'm hoping that "typical" Tory supporters will see her performance as 'thoughtful calm' as opposed to Corbyns excitability. For my part ("There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Brexit Party") any political party supporting Brexit has my interest. Any party capable of winning enough seats to form a government and push through Brexit has my vote. That leaves the one party, although I'm not a 'natural' supporter (far from it). I had for many years voted for LibDems as their manifesto's were more in keeping with own social and economic position. However, they are wholly anti-Brexit insisting still, 'voters got it wrong'. Well, if I'm getting it wrong, you don't want my vote then, do you. :rolleyes:

I will be going to bed Friday morning around 6am, having stayed up all Thursday night watching results come in. I know most folk can't be bothered (as watching results will not change them) but the excitement for me is so great it's like watching a very good film. (Yeah, sad innit.)

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Not sad at all. I used to cover politics etc for some very big publications, long ago, and I can't get it out of my system. I shall be following the election results, as well as the testimony today of former FBI director James Comey in Washington 

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52 minutes ago, Shyheels said:

Not sad at all. I used to cover politics etc for some very big publications, long ago, and I can't get it out of my system. I shall be following the election results, as well as the testimony today of former FBI director James Comey in Washington 

I try to be "worldly" with international politics, but some of the content is like a foreign language (that I have no intention of learning). I read there's been enough said so Trump isn't likely to be impeached, so the rest would likely seem like personal (arse saving) PR. If there's anything of note to learn, feel free to share it though. B)

I have been searching for some TV adverts I saw in the -I think- 1990's by what could have been a newspaper (possibly Telegraph or Independent) that ran along the lines of "I'm not interested in politics", showing how the person making that statement then asks a question that id then reflected by an answer that indicates the question has political overtones. The 'message' was that anything and everything has a political flavour somewhere. I can't find ANYTHING about the adverts anywhere. They need starting up again. People need to be involved. Why?

 

 

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Trump isn't likely to be facing impeachment proceedings in the immediate future but he's certainly sailing into some pretty rocky waters and there doesn't appear to be anyone at the helm...

Edited by Shyheels

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21 minutes ago, Shyheels said:

he's certainly sailing into some pretty rocky waters and there doesn't appear to be anyone at the helm...

Trump is at the helm, but he doesn't want help taking control of USS America. Eventually, she'll be grounded, or worse, crash against another ship.

He's too used to being the head of a business that could mitigate his everyday mistakes. Other world leaders, those with conflicting ideologies, are much less forgiving. He needs to learn diplomacy, and fast. Chances of success? Very very low, since he has shown no previous ability in this field of expertise. 

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In lighter news, I see it is National Seersucker Day in the US - something that is well observed in the US Senate where the gentlemen dust off their old blue-and-white seersucker suits and put on a bit of a fashion parade. Nice to see. 

I doubt Comey will front up in seersucker though - pity.

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8 hours ago, euchrid said:

 

 

You sir, are bloody genius. B) B) B)

With the tag line now known, a little more on the background >> here <<

 

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It's looking like Corbyn dug up 'the youth' vote with promises of free university fees for those South of the border, and an amnesty of university fee debt. (Debt removed.) 

I suspect when all the numbers are in, the Conservative total vote count has increased over the 2015 vote total, exactly as Teresa May asked. However, the youth voter has significantly bolstered the Labour totals. The UKIP voter, previously thought to be disenfranchised Tories, now seems to have been disenfranchised Labour supporters who have gone back to the party they left. I can only conclude that many of the UKIP voters feared a hard Brexit and effectively 'jumped ship' to a party who want a Brexit so soft it won't be considered a Brexit at all. (Paying to stay in the single market and keeping free movement across borders.)

Of course, the Tory campaign contained a number of 'own goals' with a major flaw in their manifesto being the start of a swing toward Labour. Teresa May then refusing to take on Corbyn in a debate, and her election message being almost robotic in it's monotony. Conversely, Corbyn was able to make manifesto promises he and the Tories could be assured he's never need to deliver. "Jam tomorrow" if you vote for me today.

Lastly, I found out this morning, there have been 'snap' elections called twice in recent history. Both parties who called those elections, lost. While this election hasn't been 'lost' as such, it certainly hasn't been won. "We", UK PLC as it were, are in the worst possible situation with a 'hung' parliament, given we are about to start Brexit negotiations. 

The two very minor bits of good news ..... A leading light in the anti-Brexit campaign, Nick Clegg is no longer an MP. Longtime Scottish Independence protagonist Alex Salmond, is no longer an MP. 

Interestingly, the 2017 election result, isn't far away from what was expected in the 2015 elections. Cameron thought at the time, he was going to have to deal with a second coalition government. Was the Referendum a juicy carrot so tempting that many voters leapt at it, and gave the Tories a convincing win that no-one expected? Same 'anomaly' with SNP, who got an unusually high number of MP's in that particular vote too, and has 'normality' returned there now as well? 

"Hubris" is what it looks like, but wasn't it quite a good tactical move if it had paid off? Weren't polls indicating the Tories had a substantial lead? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I don't know where the Labour support came from, and even the Labour party seem surprised at their unexpected success. I am sure the youth vote helped enormously, as did the Brexit backsliders. All stimulated by the Tory manifesto indicating it would once again look at retirees as a source of income. Hubris, or as football pundit Gary Lineker is saying; "own goal"? Maybe a combination of all three. The 'perfect storm'. Sounds just like the title of a film ..... 

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Theresa May ran a lacklustre and amateurish campaign, and ducked out on debates etc. It was a non campaign, based on her assumption that she would simply increase her power by popular acclaim. Such arrogance. Such hubris. And this is the result. It has certainly put Brexit in jeopardy. A one time only opportunity squandered. 

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I think you are being quite hard on T.M. possibly without cause.

There was a programme on during the week quite late Tuesday it may have been, perhaps a Tonight special. The upshot of the slice I saw, indicated that T.M. is a party player. She doesn't like standing alone, doesn't like responding without advisers to provide broad detail on a query. Put succinctly, she will not have made this decision alone, and it probably wasn't even inspired by her. Possibly 10 years from now, her memoirs will reveal the full history of how the decision was reached. I will even go so far to say she was likely all but pressured into calling an election against her better judgement. She is conservative in nature (the programme indicates) and she would have had a natural reluctance to gamble at anything. She is a well-informed plodder, rather than a short-term opportunist. 

One thing is for sure. Even as late as 10pm last night, publication of the exit polls (30,000 polling results) had people sat in disbelief at the predicted outcome. So even as late as 9 hours ago, people 'in the business' could not believe what they were being told. How much less likely then, was this situation predictable 8 weeks ago? 

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The thing is, it was completely unnecessary. No poll was required. Apparently David Davis was egging her on - and yes, it did appear at first to be well timed and that a landslide would result. 

But one still needs to run a sharp and dynamic campaign and Theresa May's was anything but. Ducking the debates, her robotic "strong and stable" mantra, and amateurish manifesto totally backfired and a series of polls conducted throughout the campaign showed a steadily diminishing Tory lead. Yet they did nothing to try to turn it around, ramp things up, try to capture the mood of the country, sell themselves in a meaningful and exciting way. They seemed more like deer caught in the headlamps on an oncoming car.

While the exit poll and subsequent result came as a shock, a poorer than expected performance at the polls was certainly on the cards. Theresa May and David Davis own this one. They must go.

Edited by Shyheels

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18 minutes ago, Shyheels said:

While the exit poll and subsequent result came as a shock, a poorer than expected performance at the polls was certainly on the cards. Theresa May and David Davis own this one. They must go.

I agree everything, but this.

We are too close to Brexit negotiations for that to happen. The EU has already started making noises about delays, hoping they can induce a change of face in the PM seat, and eventually, enough turmoil to produce a complete change in government. They are aware, playing for time suits their needs. They want a change in direction and for the money to keep rolling in.

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I think her hand has been too badly weakened for her to continue in the role. This election was all about strengthening her hand, giving her a strong public mandate. Didn't happen. Instead she's been given a stinging rebuke by the very public who were supposed to be supporting and have her back. At the very least she would need a strong vote of confidence from her party right now, to be a credible negotiator (after all the EU mandarins read newspapers too - they can see weakness), and I doubt very much she could achieve any rousing endorsement. And attempting to do so (and failing, or achieving only half-hearted success) would only weaken her further. What they need right now is a fresh face, newly voted in and with a strong mandate from within the party, or at least a show of unity, to front up at the negotiating table and carry this forward. May as been too badly humiliated and weakened to sit in on the game.     

Edited by Shyheels

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Well, she is going to have to ride the humiliation horse for some time yet. We are too close to starting the Brexit negotiations for a change in leader. The procedure for a new PM takes a long time, and that's something we don't have. If there was a change, it would put the leader of the Tory party back where TM was only weeks ago, but without an overall majority. At this time, T.M. can say she's there because she was voted for. (Could Boris or anyone else?) She still got more votes than any other party. She still has more MP's in parliament than every other party. She is in the same to better position than Cameron found himself in 2010 when he only got 306 seats. At that time he formed what was a successful coalition with the LibDems who had quite a large group of MP's to bring with them, which of course gave them leverage in the newly formed government. The DUP (who have offered their services) bring a much smaller group to the table, and if an unofficial deal can be reached (aka tactical voting in parliament) then T.M. would have a majority.

I haven't been awake long enough to look, but I will be looking soon, but I suspect (and  hope) the Tory party will have more individual votes in 2017 than it had in 2015. That being the case, T.M. has the support she asked for. Whether someone smart enough in the Tory party also capitalises on that, is another story. 

There's still one more seat to declare, so 2017 figure will change, but:

2015 Results:

11,334,576    Vote share 36.9%

2017 Results: (one more seat to be declared)

13,650,900    Vote Share 42.4%

Teresa May didn't "lose" anything. These figures show she actually got what she asked for. May didn't do badly, Corbyn did unbelievably well by mobilising some of the CAB Party, apparently by using social media to great success.  

 

What EVERYONE has lost sight of, was the prospect of Scottish Independence and Kranky trying to scupper Brexit. There was a strategic need to curb this increasingly troublesome woman, and an election might take care of that. It did, resoundingly. Kranky lost her Westminster right-hand man, and the man who had carried the "Independence" torch for years before her. If anyone is looking at losing her job, she is. This election has called a full-stop to any notion the SNP might have had for a second Scottish Independence referendum, since any call for one in the Scottish parliament would not get passed with so many Unionist MP's now sitting. After Brexit (a battle already won) the potential collapse of the Union was the next serious challenge facing the UK. Now stopped dead.

Someone with the wit to do it, should be slapping Teresa May on the back and congratulating her on her success. Greater proportion of the electorate voting for her, more voters, voting for her. And she's quelled the threat to the Union from the SNP. 

While the Labour Party is basking in glory, (almost as if they had won the election outright) Corbyn dissenters will still be looking for an excuse to get their way. He is there as a parliamentary representative of the Trades Union movement, who want open doors to the UK. Few of the core Labour supporters (the actual T.U. members) want that too. As I've said elsewhere, British workers don't want to compete with 500M EU workers, who are used to working longer hours for less, without 'free' medical care. Corbyn bought some time, but he is no leader of the UK.

 

Looking at this map (one seat to declare) who would think the Tory party didn't have an overall majority?

 

593a9457c390a_2017Electionmap.jpg.5f7ce3829882b0fc8702b68100d611e5.jpg

 

Today, I feel like a Remainer must have felt last year: deflated.

But the statistics say it was a good result that could have been 8 seats better. And the constant threat of an Independent Scotland, has finally gone away for another 5-10 years.

Time to crack on with Brexit. 

 

 

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